Tuesday, 17 July 2012

Abkhazia, from conflict to statehood by George Hewitt , 17 July 2012


A bitter post-Soviet war in 1992-93 saw the Black Sea territory of Abkhazia resist invasion from Georgia and establish an independent statehood. But amid non-recognition from all but a handful of countries, and persistent hostility from Georgia, the young republic has faced many challenges in the subsequent two decades. The leading scholar of Abkhazia and advocate of its case, George Hewitt, presents an overview of these twenty years and outlines a scenario for the future.
The small republic of Abkhazia that abuts the north-eastern coast of the Black Sea was forged out of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990-91 and war with its neighbour Georgia in 1992-93. That war had started on 14 August 1992 when rag-tag if brutal militias, nominally under the control of Georgia's president Eduard Shevardnadze, crossed the River Ingur, which since the end of the 17th century had formed the border between Abkhazia and Georgia; it effectively came to an end on 30 September 1993 when the last of Tbilisi's incompetent forces were driven from Abkhazian territory by the same route. The upper K’odor valley remained in Georgian hands, but this was recovered by Abkhazian forces in a bloodless operation in August 2008 against the backdrop of Georgia's crushing defeat in the short war with Russia over South Ossetia.
Abkhazians had lived for seven decades inside the Soviet Union, in successive forms of constitutional association with Georgia which had in their eyes permitted an increasing erosion of their autonomy and rights. In March 1990, amid the nationalist mobilisations of 1989-90 that foretold the Soviet Union's demise, the government in Tbilisi, Georgia's capital, annulled all Soviet legislation pertaining to Georgia. It simultaneously decided to restore the independent status the country had enjoyed in 1918-21, when it was ruled by local Mensheviks (so-called social democrats); this status had been codified in a 1921 constitution, which however was never promulgated.
Abkhazians responded by arguing that this annulment - which included the Soviet constitution introduced in 1978, during the era of Leonid Brezhnev - left Abkhazia without any properly defined constitutional status of its own - and, most pertinently, any link to Georgia, for the 1978 document was the most recent to define its formal ties to Georgia. Tbilisi had made a unilateral decision to alter its constitutional relationship with the Soviet Union, namely to withdraw from that state tout court; but it had done so without any regard for Abkhazian interests and wishes, and thus its act was seen in Sukhum, Abkhazia's capital, as effectively one of peremptory, quasi-colonial annexation.
This crucial decision was compounded when in March 1992 the international community recognised Georgia within its Soviet boundaries (i.e. including Abkhazia), but without any guarantee of Abkhazia's own status or autonomy. Eduard Shevardnadze, who had served as Soviet foreign minister under Mikhail Gorbachev during the glasnost and perestroika years, had returned from his Moscow retirement in March 1992 to try to restore order out of the violent chaos that was engulfing his homeland. The major states, anxious to bolster their friend's authority, paid little heed to what for them were constitutional niceties - but which for the Abkhazians were literally a matter of life-or-death.
After all, the Georgians’ very own act of abrogation in March 1990 had put the legality of its frontier with Abkhazia in question; so to recognise Georgia was to the Abkhazians a grievous mistake that could endanger their very existence. This fear was confirmed when, four months after recognition, and after Georgia had also been granted membership of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and, most importantly, the United Nations - Georgian forces invaded Abkhazia.
The pivotal year
The Abkhazians' firm hope and expectation was that the community of nations would acknowledge a demand for self-determination that the defence of their homeland was to vindicate. They were to be sorely disappointed, for instead Tbilisi's right to restore (Soviet) Georgia’s territorial integrity in line with the recognition granted in March 1992 was left unchallenged, and Abkhazia regarded as a "breakaway", "renegade" entity.
Even at that stage, there were four anomalies in the situation:
* an illegitimate regime was in power in Tbilisi and central Georgia, which had ousted the erratic but constitutionally elected president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, in January 1992
* even that regime’s writ did not run in all parts of the relevant territory, as a bitter civil war was in progress in the west Georgian region of Mingrelia (Gamsakhurdia’s power-base)
* an additional, intermittent war was being prosecuted in the province of South Ossetia to the north-west
* elections in Georgia were scheduled for October 1992, when the country’s electorate were to have an opportunity to express their opinion and deliver the mandate the new authorities still lacked; but in the event, Shevardnadze's regime gained all the credibility and legitimacy it needed by being recognised, and admitted to international organisations, even before the elections. Within two weeks of Georgia's entry to the United Nations on 31 July 1992, Shevardnadze’s troops crossed the Ingur River.
The unsettled post-war
The years from 1993-2008 presented Abkhazia with many challenges and dangers. Vladislav Ardzinba, by profession a scholar of the Hittite civilisation, had proved to be an inspiring war-leader, and was to serve two terms as Abkhazia's president (1994-99, 1999-2004). In the post-war period, his main task was to steer a course that would preserve and strengthen Abkhazia’s de facto independence in the face of both a belligerent Tbilisi and the sanctions-blockade regime imposed by the international community (including, though this is often forgotten, the Russia of Boris Yeltsin). This responsibility was discharged well by Ardzinba, until a mysterious, progressively debilitating illness forced him to retreat from public view during his second term; he died in 2010.
After the war, a contingent of peacekeepers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) - in effect a Russian force - patrolled the demilitarised zone along the Ingur, and there was a small monitoring mission from the United Nations’ Observer Mission in Georgia (Unomig). A set of Georgian-Abkhazian peace accords were signed in Moscow in 1994. But there were frequent acts of terrorism and sabotage throughout the 1990s, mostly in Abkhazia's south-easternmost province of Gal. The perpetrators were largely members of groupings such as the Forest Brothers (under the Mingrelian Davit [Dato] Shengelia), or the White Legion (headed by another Mingrelian, Zurab Samushia).
It became public knowledge that these organisations enjoyed backing from Georgian officialdom; the Georgian journalist Ak’ak’i Mikadze (writing in the Russian-language Vremja on 3 June 1998) even stated the amount of funds being paid to Shengelia and his partisans by Georgia’s internal-affairs and state-security ministries. There was an eruption of full-scale fighting in villages close to the Ingur border in May 1998, when a speedy Abkhazian muster blocked the attempted incursion; and forty deaths occurred on October 2001 when a group of Chechens under Ruslan Gelaev, who had been ferried across from eastern Georgia’s P’ank’isi gorge (undoubtedly with official support) attempted to break out of the upper K’odor valley. Nine of those killed were the passengers and crew of a UN helicopter shot down over the Georgian-controlled part of the valley on 8 October.
This was the last major incident to threaten Abkhazia while Shevardnadze remained at the helm in Tbilisi. He was replaced in late 2003, as a result of yet another unconstitutional ousting - known as the "rose revolution" - by his former protégé, Mikheil (Misha) Saak’ashvili, who following his electoral victory was inaugurated as Georgia's new president in January 2004.
Saak’ashvili promised to restore Georgia’s territorial integrity during his term of office. In July 2006, he sent a contingent of Georgian militia into the upper K’odor valley on the pretext of a "policing operation". By this time, Sergej Bagapsh had become Abkhazia’s president, and his administration responded by breaking off negotiations with the Georgian authorities. They would not, Bagapsh declared, be continued until Saak’ashvili withdrew this military force; signed a non-aggression pact with Sukhum; and either released or made known the fate of Davit Sigua, a Mingrelian who had been abducted from the town of Gal, where he was serving on the regional electoral commission.
Saak’ashvili, far from removing the force, set about investing heavily in the area his troops had occupied: asphalting the main road, laying a small airstrip in the village of Chkhalta, and opening a branch of Zugdidi Bank (including an ATM) in the village of Azhara. All this was aimed at making what he restyled "Upper Abkhazia" into something of a showpiece to contrast with the straitened socio-economic situation existing in the rest of Abkhazia. The appearance of troops so close (albeit via a road that was/is difficult to traverse) to the Abkhazian capital just as the tourist-season was getting underway resulted in relatively few visitors daring to holiday in Sukhum itself, though the northern resorts (Pitsunda, Gagra, New Athos) did not really suffer a decline in numbers.
The five-day war
Saak’ashvili’s aspiration to repair (Soviet) Georgia’s fractured polity had an early success when in May 2004 he re-established central control over the ethnically Georgian province of Ach’ara (Adzharia) abutting Turkey in the south-west. But his first real target was South Ossetia, where his reintegration venture, also in 2004, ended in (entirely foreseeable) failure. The Kremlin’s attitude towards both of Tbilisi’s troublesome states, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, had altered since Vladimir Putin’s elevation to the presidency in 1999. An aspect of this was the decision to allow residents of both to acquire Russian citizenship and passports.
As old Soviet documents finally became unextendable (and thus invalid), most Abkhazians and South Ossetians adamantly refused to bend to the international community’s insistence that they should obtain Georgian passports in order to exercise their human right to freedom of international travel; yet without Russian passports, such individuals were (and, indeed, are) effectively denied the possibility of crossing any frontier other than the one their states share with Russia, for Russia at least accepted the internal documents issued in both. Russia’s warming of relations with Sukhum (Abkhazia) and Tskhinval (South Ossetia) thus ran in parallel with ever deteriorating relations with Saak’ashvili’s Georgia.
The Georgia vs Abkhazia / South Ossetia stand-off remained more or less stable, with occasional heightening of tension, until 2008. A number of events began to unsettle the situation. The eventual recognition of Kosovo by many western states, which had been anticipated in 2007 - and whose implications for Abkhazia (and South Ossetia) were the subject of much speculation in mid-2007 in Sukhum - caused huge resentment in Serbia’s ally, Russia.
Then, the United States president George W Bush arrived for the Nato summit in Bucharest (2-4 April 2008) with the confident expectation that Georgia (and Ukraine) would be granted membership. This was rebutted by the more sensible members of the alliance (over predictable support for the proposal from Britain), though a compromise saw the two former Soviet republics offered a "membership action plan" (MAP) to be confirmed at Nato’s next summit in December 2008. The unanswered question was whether membership for Georgia could ever be realistic, given the de facto independent status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which already had significant and growing support from Putin’s Russia. The fear was that the mercurial Georgian president would attempt another push against the territories in order to claim that his country’s (Soviet) borders were restored to central control before Nato’s December gathering.
The Abkhazians knew, and conveyed the fact, that Abkhazia might come under attack in spring 2008. In fact, the late Ronald Asmus, an ardent supporter of Saak’ashvili and Georgia’s entry into Nato, confirmed in his 2010 excursus on the events of August 2008 that such a plan had existed; indeed, it is clear from this work that Condoleezza Rice’s under-secretary for Transcaucasia, Matthew Bryza, the European Union’s representative for the region, Peter Semneby, and the Swedish foreign minister, Carl Bildt, were all fully aware of it. No assault occurred; but in May, a special Russian military contingent arrived in Abkhazia to upgrade the railtrack from Sukhum through Ochamchira and onwards to Gal, near the Georgian border; this had lain mostly idle since 1993.
The surge in shelling across the Georgian-South Ossetian divide, which regularly occurred in the summer of each year, seemed in mid-2008 more intense than normal. Then, as the world anticipated the opening of the Olympic games in China, Georgian troops moved against Tskhinval towards midnight (local time) on Thursday 7 August, even though Saak’ashvili had stated in a broadcast to the people of South Ossetia earlier that evening that they were in no danger.
Abkhazians wondered what the fighting in and around South Ossetia, in which Russia became heavily involved within a matter of hours, portended for them. There was no doubt in anybody’s mind that a Georgian victory would be swiftly followed by a parallel operation against their republic. And so, at the weekend, Bagapsh ordered a general mobilisation for Monday morning, 11 August. It was decided that now was the time to eject the Georgian military presence from the K’odor valley, which was softened up by bombing in advance of the Abkhazian infantry’s ascent early on Tuesday 12 August.
Russia had brought tanks and other armoured equipment in by sea and air, and, as an exclusively Abkhazian land-force moved up the valley, other Abkhazians joined Russians in a push over the Ingur that brought them to the Mingrelian town of Senak’i, the control-centre for Georgian military actions in western Transcaucasia (some even advanced towards Georgia’s second city of Kutaisi to test the extent and nature of Georgian defences, but - unlike what happened in and around South Ossetia - there was no targeting or pillaging of the local citizenry). Georgian patrol-vessels were sunk in the Mingrelian port of Poti by the Russian navy.
Meanwhile, all military personnel, along with most of the local (Svan) residents, had hastily abandoned the upper K’odor valley, fleeing into neighbouring Svanetia. It came as a tremendous surprise (but welcome relief) to the Abkhazians to find the valley deserted. Mines had, however, been left at strategic points, and these had to be defused. The large amount of ordnance that the Georgians had stored there (for what purpose has never been revealed) was transported down to Sukhum and briefly put on display; its speedy removal from public view was rumoured to have been as a result of a request from the United States, embarrassed by some of the exhibits on display.
At 3 pm (Moscow time) on 26 August, President Dmitry Medvedev - who had taken office in May 2008 - announced in a live transmission from the Kremlin that Russia was prepared to recognise both Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence. The announcement was met within minutes by an eruption of wild celebrations, including much flag-waving and gunfire, which went on into the early hours (though the former president, Vladislav Ardzinba, introduced a note of caution with his remark: "The dreadful times are past; difficult times are now beginning.") The Medvedev-Sarkozy plan, which had brought a formal end to the so-called "five-day August war", had called for a return of Russian forces to their pre-war locations, but the argument now advanced was that the recognised states had the right to reach their own agreements with Russia as to the number and location of military units on their territories. This stance has been maintained to the present, and Russian bases are established in both republics.
The Russian question
Both during and after the fighting of August 2008 the world mostly accepted Saak’ashvili’s view of events, which was energetically propounded by a public-relations machine fronted by Randy Scheunemann, who also worked for Saak’ashvili-devotee Senator John McCain: namely, that Georgia had been the victim of outright Russian aggression, aimed at preserving Moscow's "control" of the two territories and thus frustrating Georgia’s goal of Nato membership. But eventually, especially after the publication at the end of September 2009 of the European Union report into the war by a commission headed by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, there could no longer be any doubt that the Georgians had initiated hostilities.
But supporters of Saak’ashvili merely switched focus by postulating a different scenario: whilst Saak’ashvili might have launched the assault, he had haplessly fallen into a trap contrived by the Russians, who thus remained ultimately responsible. A far more plausible hypothesis, however, should be considered: that Saak’ashvili, desperate to gain entry into Nato in December 2008, felt he had to attempt to reintegrate Georgia’s lost regions, possibly expecting that, if Russia responded in their defence, America and/or other western backers of Georgia’s pro-western, anti-Russian orientation would come to his rescue. No such rescue was forthcoming. In any event, a new era began with Russia’s recognition on 26 August 2008.
It was a time of euphoria, similar to the end of the 1992-93 war; there was expectation that the path was now open for Abkhazia to proceed to full membership of the international community. Nicaragua granted recognition on 5 September, and established diplomatic relations on 10 September, a day after Russia took this additional step, but the majority opinion throughout the world was as unyielding as it had been hitherto: the principle that (Soviet) Georgia’s frontiers are inviolable has to be upheld, and recognition of the secessionist states is deemed illegitimate. Thus, the mood of ecstasy dissipated, as reality began to dawn.
Some unease also eventually began to be voiced about the nature of some of the agreements that were signed with Russia in the months following the war. Several were finalised in Moscow on 17 September 2008. These - on friendship, coöperation and mutual assistance - envisaged bilateral action in the economic, legal and security fields; dual citizenship was to be recognised, common transportation was to be established, accompanied by development of infrastructure for energy and communications. These agreements were to stand for ten years and be open to quinquennial renewal, though the lease on the military bases (e.g. at Bombora, near Gudauta, in Abkhazia) was to last for forty-nine years.
A further set of accords was signed in March 2009, whereby Abkhazia was promised $68 million from the federal Russian budget. The management and upgrading of Abkhazia’s railways and airport were signed over to Russia for ten years in exchange for loans and investments; moreover, Russia was also granted oil-exploration rights in the Black Sea for five years. Then, on 31 March 2009, Russia was granted powers to protect Abkhazia’s border and guard its coastal waters. Russia’s federal security service (FSB) was to set up a border-control administration along the frontier with Georgia; assistance would be offered to the republics for training specialists in border-control, though in compensation Abkhazia was to provide the administration with premises, airspace and landing-fields. The agreements were to remain effective only until Abkhazia was in a position to form its own border-control bodies.
It was perhaps the leasing of the railway and airport (the largest in the entire Caucasus) along with the transfer of border-security to the FSB that caused the most concern. But Sergej Bagapsh’s response, perhaps never clearly articulated publicly, was that Abkhazia did not have the wherewithal (in terms of materials, expertise, finance and manpower) to conduct all these essential tasks itself; furthermore, whilst similar benefits to Armenia, based on parallel understandings with Russia, were paid for out of Armenia’s budget, Abkhazia was not being required to pay anything.
Stanislav Lakoba is a professional historian who had headed Abkhazia’s security council since the rerun of the contentious presidential election in January 2005. Soon after recognition, he intimated that, given Abkhazia’s new status, it was no longer appropriate for the UN Observer Mission there to retain the words "in Georgia" in its title insofar as its operation within Abkhazia was concerned. He had evidently discussed this with the head of the mission, who foresaw no change. Lakoba’s response was to the point: "In that case, the mission will be told to leave Abkhazia!"
There followed months of diplomacy that failed to reach a semantic compromise satisfactory to all sides. After a Russian veto exercised on Abkhazia’s behalf, the UN had no option but to end its presence - not only in Abkhazia but also in Georgia - from 30 June 2009 (though in practice duties in Abkhazia ceased on 16 June); the mandate of the OSCE was also terminated. This meant that the only foreign observers left in Georgia were those belonging to the EU’s monitoring mission, established in line with the Medvedev-Sarkozy peace-plan, though the authorities in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia refuse to allow them to enter their sovereign territories. The UN presence in Abkhazia had brought some well-paid employment opportunities for local citizens, as well as contributing more widely to the economy, and the closure of the operation thus had unfortunate consequences.
The Georgian reaction to recognition was to formulate a draft law, the final version of which was signed off by Saak’ashvili on 31 October 2009, to impose notional restrictions on various activities within the so-called "occupied territories". The Council of Europe’s Venice commission criticised aspects of the content, and a modest amendment was introduced in February 2010 lifting Georgian objections to the direct delivery of humanitarian assistance.
Georgia had already, in January 2010, published a "state strategy on [the] occupied territories: engagement through coöperation". This caused alarm, especially among international organisations trying to mediate between the various parties, as it aimed to control both activity within the said areas but also the flow of funds thereto. In the main, Georgian machinations are regarded in Abkhazia with disdain as having little or no practical effects on the ground. Some NGOs that work with international partner-organisations, however, wondered how they might affect such partnerships (perhaps to the extent of being summarily wound up).
Any use of the phrase "occupied territories" by any western representative of standing is seized upon and vaunted in Tbilisi. When the US Senate (on 29 July 2011) and the European parliament (on 17 November 2011) passed resolutions defining Abkhazia and South Ossetia in these very terms, they were proclaimed by Saak’ashvili to be "historic documents" laying the foundation for the (re)-establishment of Georgian control, although what their practical relevance (if any) will prove to be remains an open question. A proposer of the EU resolution, Krzysztof Lisek, travelled to Tbilisi in the aftermath, where he was awarded the Order of St. George.
For a short time in the mid-1990s a little passenger-ferry ran between the ports of Sukhum and Trabzon in Turkey. It had been hoped to reopen this route in the wake of recognition, but so far these hopes have not been realised. Though freight has continued to be shipped, Georgia has regularly impounded vessels plying the route and confiscated their cargoes; between 1991-2003, forty Turkish vessels were seized, followed by a further twenty-two in 2004-06.
The most notorious incident occurred in summer 2009, when a Turkish tanker sailing from Trabzon was impounded as soon as it entered international waters in what was clearly an act of international piracy (yet the international community's response was a contrast with that over similar events off the Horn of Africa). After the cargo was confiscated, the captain was jailed for twenty-four years and only freed after high-level intervention by the Turkish government.
It was equally hoped that regular passenger-flights might be reinstated to/from Sukhum airport, for destinations in Turkey and perhaps elsewhere in the middle east as well as Russia, but again none has been instigated to date.
The democratic test
The main event in Abkhazia in 2009 was the presidential election at the end of the year. The previous election of 2004-05 had been surrounded by dispute, with Moscow expressing preference for Raul Khadzhimba, who resigned from the government in May 2009 to run against the incumbent Sergej Bagapsh. After a rerun vote the main rivals came together in a government of national unity with Bagapsh as president and Raul Khadzhimba as his deputy.
Khadzhimba had been Ardzinba’s anointed successor, though Moscow's support of him is thought to have driven more voters to Bagapsh's side. In May 2009, he had resigned from the government to run his campaign. The third candidate was a wealthy businessman, Beslan Butba. The campaign turned rather bitter. There were nationalist accusations that Bagapsh, whose wife (now widow) is Mingrelian, had won thanks to the votes cast by those Mingrelians who had secured voting rights in 2004-05; though he was charged more with bending to Moscow's wishes than to Tbilisi's. The opposition complaints about Bagapsh’s weak stance towards Russia were later tempered by reassurances that Russia should not feel targeted by such criticism; after all, the geopolitical position of Abkhazia and the largely hostile attitude of the world towards it meant that no Abkhazian politician could afford to alienate the Kremlin.
A particularly vocal section of the opposition subsequently focused on two questions: how many of Abkhazia’s remaining Kartvelian (predominantly Mingrelian) population should have voting rights in 2009, and could Abkhazia even afford to tolerate any large-scale Kartvelian presence on its territory? It argued against the common view that the bulk of the Mingrelians in the Gal district had not participated in the 1992-93 war, and claimed that more had actually taken up weapons against the Abkhazians than was/is generally supposed; such being the case, the question was mooted as to why a community that had harboured fighters should be granted residency rights, let alone be allowed to vote for the president (and/or parliament at the time of parliamentary elections).
In the event, no special dispensation (on the model of 2004-05) was made, and the right to vote was restricted to those holding an Abkhazian passport. Such overtly nationalist sentiment raised fears that, if prudence did not prevail, Abkhazia might end up committing the same error as late-Soviet Georgia: namely alienate its own minorities rather than do everything possible to make them feel respected and valued members of a society deserving of their support.
Sergej Bagapsh had had a number of meetings in Russia with Vladimir Putin since becoming president in early 2005, though Putin had never allowed photos to be taken. The Russian premier eventually consented to a flying visit to Sukhum on 12 August 2009, and official cameras recorded his laying of a wreath at the war memorial with Bagapsh at his side. There was also film of his extraordinary meeting with a group of oppositionists, headed by Khadzhimba. At his press conference he acknowledged the obvious fact that the change of Russia’s stance towards Abkhazia, activated while he had still held the Russian presidency, served the strategic interests of Russia. On the morning of the visit, a bomb exploded in the centre of the northern resort of Gagra, killing two people; and as the last meeting of the day was being held, another exploded in Sukhum, this time without casualties.
Despite the apprehensions felt about the post-recognition agreements with Russia and the heat generated during the campaign, the 2009 election passed off peacefully. Bagapsh, who still basked in the glory of having been in office at the time when the process of achieving international recognition began, proved the clear winner without any need for a run-off. His intention, he stated, was to devote his second (and, by the constitution, final) term to widening Abkhazia’s recognition and working towards improving life for the republic’s citizens, free from thoughts about having to contest another election.
In 2009, the London-based NGO Conciliation Resources and Germany’s Heinrich Böll Foundation provided financial backing for the Georgian filmmaker Mamuk’a Kuparadze to produce a documentary - Absence of Will (in Georgian, Nebis Arkona) - for Georgia’s Studia Re. A young man and woman, not old enough to remember the 1992-93 war, were filmed questioning fellow Kartvelians, including such leading figures as Shevardnadze and General Gia Q’arq’arashvili, who had issued a genocidal threat against the Abkhazian nation in the autumn of 1992, about their actions at the time and/or memories of relevant events. This film is possibly the first time when Kartvelians are seen publicly questioning the legitimacy of the actions of the Georgian government vis-à-vis Abkhazia and thus represents a very important step forward in learning lessons through the process of self-criticism. The film was presented to selected audiences abroad (including a screening in the British parliament’s Portcullis House).
In the early summer of 2010, with the agreement of Abkhazia's prime minister Sergej Shamba (previously the long-serving foreign minister), Kuparadze was invited to Abkhazia to attend the broadcast of his documentary on Abkhazia's state TV-channel. A live discussion immediately followed the film, and both on this occasion and in later comments the predominant reaction was worryingly negative (not to say hostile). Rather than welcome the admission of wrongs seen in the film, commentators mostly evinced suspicion. The film was condemned as some kind of ruse to deceive the Abkhazians into adopting a less adamant stance against reunification, and even the motives of those who had organised the event in Sukhum (Shamba and representatives of some NGOs) were called into question: did they, it was asked, have the best interests of Abkhazia at heart or were they (especially those who received funding for projects from the west) being called to play the (presumed pro-Georgian) tune of those western organisations who finance joint-projects?
In turn, some saw the hand of political manipulation behind much of the hysterical response. They concluded it was essential to continue work towards reconciliation with neighbouring Georgia at the level of inter-state politics, and to intensify efforts inside Abkhazia to convince local citizens of this need - for this is a precondition for achieving normality in relations with Georgia, which must happen at some point.
The last journey
The majority of the world’s ethnic Abkhazians live as a diaspora-community in Turkey, and there has been a long-standing hope that many of the descendants of the original 19th-century exiles will build their future in the historical homeland, Bagapsh naturally desired to visit this community; Turkey finally agreed in April 2011. The trip was not as successful as it should have been, because of rumour-mongering by members of the opposition in Abkhazia who alleged that Bagapsh’s policy towards Russia equated to betrayal of Abkhazia’s true interests. Bagapsh, thus, had constantly to defend his position in front of members of the community in Turkey.
An even more epoch-making overseas journey was in prospect in 2011. The Oxford Union issued an invitation for Bagapsh to deliver an address, setting out Abkhazian aspirations. This would have been the first visit by an Abkhazian president to a western country. Leading Abkhazians had managed to travel to various western destinations during the 1990s to present their case at conferences or at meetings with civil servants, but since George W. Bush became US president, visas had been refused even to allow Abkhazian representatives (such as foreign-minister Shamba) to express Abkhazia’s viewpoint at the UN; it also often proved (and, indeed, still proves) difficult for Abkhazians travelling on Russian passports to obtain visas to enter certain EU countries (notably Germany).
The fact that Chatham House, the leading foreign-policy think-tank in London, would also have invited Bagapsh to speak makes it reasonably sure that the UK trip would have granted him a visa. But the issue, and the impact of a trip on the British (or European) attitude to Abkhazia, were never to be tested. For as his speech was being finalised, Bagapsh flew to Moscow for a minor operation to correct a smoker’s complaint, and though the operation (in an FSB clinic) evidently went smoothly, complications set in, and he died unexpectedly on 29 May 2011. Vladimir Putin was amongst the mourners on the day of the funeral.
The presidential contest
The unanticipated presidential election was scheduled to coincide with "recognition day" (26 August), with three candidates proposing themselves: vice-president Aleksandr Ankvab, prime minister Sergej Shamba, and Raul Khadzhimba. In advance of the election both Ankvab and Shamba resigned their posts to concentrate on their campaigns, and the parliamentary speaker Nugzar Ashuba became interim president.
The campaign was energetic. The candidates and their running-mates travelled widely across the republic (including to the Mingrelian-dominated Gal district) to hold rallies and meetings; they took part in debates (with one another and/or electors) and gave interviews (in both Abkhaz and Russian) across the media-outlets; each had both a central and regional head-quarters; and a variety of electioneering materials was produced, including on the internet.
Shamba’s headquarters had the air of being the best financed and was a hive of activity throughout the campaign. Khadzhimba, whose running-mate was Svetlana Dzhergenia, widow of ex-president Ardzinba, retained much of the core support he had previously attracted, but since he had failed on two earlier occasions there was a feeling that his campaign was doomed; moreover, despite his personal reputation for integrity, the nature of (some of) his followers alienated a number of voters. Ankvab, who had survived several assassination attempts since his return to Abkhazian politics from pursuing business interests in Moscow, was renowned for personal austerity and made the eradication of corruption the central plank of his manifesto (which was the last of the three to be prepared for circulation and took the form of a booklet containing a personal address in Abkhaz and Russian to the reader).
The candidates had undertaken to conduct a clean campaign, but it took a negative turn on 15 August, when Shamba (or, as he maintained, members of his team) screened outside the Philharmonic Hall in Sukhum part of a video in which the person who had led Georgian forces into Abkhazia on 14 August 1992, Tengiz K’it’ovani, who now lives in exile in Russia, accused Ankvab (Abkhazia’s interior minister at the time) of having known in advance of Tbilisi’s plans to invade Abkhazia but had done nothing to prevent it.
Ankvab, perhaps surprisingly, declined to respond to the charge. His reason was possibly that he had already vigorously defended himself against a similar charge made in 2003 by Vladislav Ardzinba, arguing that Ardzinba had known as much about Georgian intentions as he did; so that, if any blame was to be applied, it should attach to the then head of the administration, namely Ardzinba himself, who is regarded in Abkhazia as a figure utterly beyond public reproach.
Whoever was responsible for the video incident, the tactic backfired disastrously, for it contravened the average Abkhazian voter’s sense of fair play and, in any case, the intervention of K’it’ovani (of all people) was never likely to prove persuasive in Abkhazia. Many voters are thought promptly to have transferred their allegiance from Shamba, once seen as an urbane foreign minister with good contacts abroad, to Ankvab.
Well over one hundred observers (from such countries as Russia, France, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Japan, Nauru, and Fiji) cast supervisory eyes over the proceedings on election-day and expressed themselves fully satisfied. It was possible, not for the first time, to hear the opinion expressed that democracy is more advanced in Abkhazia than in Russia (let alone Georgia). Ballot-boxes were transparent. Internal Abkhazian passports served as registration-cards, and voting-slips were issued only after the passport was checked against the voter-list for that ward, and the passport stamped as proof of voting. Counts were conducted on the spot in full view of officials, observers and individuals peering through windows from the street outside.
Ankvab emerged the clear winner, with 54.86% of the 101,192 votes cast, a turnout that represented 71.92% of those eligible to vote. He quickly set about making changes to personnel, both inside and outside government. Abkhazia soon gained a foreign minister who could claim to have been partly educated in the west, namely Vjacheslav Chirikba. He had previously been an advisor in Bagapsh’s administration and leader of the Abkhazian delegation to the Geneva talks, and had earned his doctorate (in Abkhaz studies) during his years of residence in Leiden.
The big neighbour
In light of the apprehensions raised by the nature of some of the agreements signed with Russia in the wake of recognition, one of the hopes invested in the new administration was that it would release information about several other accords signed by the late president, whose legacy remains to be appropriately evaluated. But, even apart from this, there were already indications of problems affecting aspects of Abkhazia’s relations with Russia.
There has been substantial growth in the number of hotels operating in Sukhum, but a long-standing base for significant numbers of Russian tourists remained the sanatorium-complex known as the Turbaza, which lies alongside a pleasant stretch of the beach in the south-eastern centre of Sukhum Bay. The land belongs to the Abkhazian state, but the complex, which offered employment to many local citizens, was provisioned by the Russian defence ministry. It suddenly closed in advance of the 2011 holiday season on the grounds that a radical refurbishment was needed, thereby reducing the number of tourists and eliminating their contribution to the local economy. This was followed by rumours suggesting murkier reasons to do with wrangles over ownership of this potentially very lucrative site.
Already, during Ardzinba’s presidency, there were arguments over the extent to which the sale of such fundamental state-properties as the five "Stalin dachas" should even be contemplated (never mind actually permitted). A huge stretch of the beach and the adjoining pine-forest in the finest of Abkhazia’s resorts (Pitsunda) have remained in the exclusive control of Russian ministries since Nikita Krushchëv first developed the bay into a tourist-paradise in the 1960s. A state-dacha overlooking Gagra (the so-called "Pearl of the Black Sea") that had fallen derelict has been renovated behind a high fence with sentry-posts, reportedly as a retreat for the head of the Krasnodar region.
Apart from concern over the future of individual locations and what arrangements regarding ownership reveal about the overall nature of Abkhaz-Russian relations, a controversy also blew up prior to Bagapsh’s death over the ownership of the village of Aibga and its surrounding territory along the Abkhaz-Russian border in the area of Krasnaja Poljana, the site of the skiing events for Sochi’s winter Olympics in 2014. The historical dividing-line between Abkhaz-speaking and Ubykh/Circassian-speaking territories ran roughly along the Mzymta River, whereas today Abkhazia’s northern frontier lies to the south of this along the Psou River. Thus, if any irredentist claim were to be made, it might legitimately be expected to come from Abkhazia against Russia. However, this northern region was largely cleared of its native population following Russia’s conquest in 1864.
The village of Aibga today is occupied by a handful of ethnic Russians, and Russia asserted that they would be better catered for under direct Russian rule. The Abkhazian government strongly opposed any transfer of land and attendant control of whatever mineral wealth might lie on or beneath it. A joint commission was established to investigate the matter. The leader of the Abkhazian delegation is toponymist Valerij Kvarchia, who has marshalled weighty documentary evidence to buttress Abkhazia’s right to the area. The matter awaits resolution.
In 2011, the Russian authorities decided to close the pedestrian border-crossing in order to widen it and thus improve the future flow of such traffic; most probably the consequence of lack of forethought rather than any hostile intent to threaten the viability of Abkhazia’s tourist trade. The problem was that, as the work was undertaken during the tourist season, all movement across the border was squeezed into the channel which, for a number of years, had been reserved for vehicular traffic and which has only a narrow pavement running along each side of the bridge. Frustration at the border has been the norm for years, but the queues in 2011 presented a particularly daunting and unappealing prospect.
That said, perhaps the greatest challenge to the traditional source of tourists for Abkhazia (viz. Russia) is the relatively high prices coupled with lowish standards of service and an infrastructure in severe need of upgrading, whose consequence is that Abkhazia has lost out over recent years to such destinations as Turkey and Egypt (to which Russians can easily obtain entry-visas). In many ways, visting Abkhazia is a reminder of life in Soviet times; a phenomenon that an Abkhazian journalist and insightful commentator on the modern scene, Inal Kashig, ascribes not to any emotional attachment among Abkhazians to the Soviet lifestyle but simply to the fact that they have little or no experience of anything different. This is, of course, a direct result of the years of isolation imposed upon the republic during the regime of sanctions and the deliberate shunning by the international community.
For several years, Russia’s attempts to gain membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) had been blocked by Georgia, as the latter sought to win concessions with regard to Russia’s "occupation" of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia failed to gain agreement for the posting of its own border-guards on either side of the crossings from Russia into the two republics; but eventually, towards the close of 2011, Russia consented to a Swiss proposal that trade across the frontiers be monitored by an independent and neutral agency. Georgia found this measure acceptable and withdrew its objections to Russian membership of the WTO. Some irritation was expressed in Abkhazia that this could to a degree raise doubts about the absolute nature of Abkhazia’s independence, but at least trade can continue without direct interference, and simultaneously Russia has achieved its long-term goal.
A most important recent event was the visit of Archimandrite Dorofej Dbar of the Orthodox Church of Abkhazia to Istanbul in January 2012, where he was officially received by the Patriarch of Constantinople. Dbar explained in his interview to the Russian-language paper Èkho Moskvy that, when the Georgian bishop left Abkhazia, the priest Vissarion Apliaa, who is now in his 60s, took complete charge of the the Sukhum Eparchy. He failed in his attempt to persuade the Russian Patriarch Aleksej II before the latter’s death at the end of 2008 to sanction the Abkhazian church’s removal from the Georgian church to join that of Russia; when Aleksej’s successor, Kirill I, maintained his predecessor’s stance and dispatched a representative to the monastery in New Athos in 2010, the result was a schism within Abkhazia as a group of younger reformers came together under Dbar, heading what they declared to be a Holy Metropolis.
The ultimate aim is for the Abkhazian church to achieve autocephaly, though, for the time being, the Constantinople Patriarch is merely asked to define the canonical status of the church in Abkhazia, where reconciliation will be a first step towards the further development that might eventually lead to the desired autocephaly.
Khadzhimba, who came bottom of the poll in the 2011 presidential election, remained as head of the "Forum for the National Unity of Abkhazia", and was a founder-member of a new opposition grouping called Apsadgjyl (Homeland), designed to be a focus for self-declared "patriots". In this capacity he addressed its opening congress on 19 January 2012. The grouping plans to contest the parliamentary elections, scheduled for March 2013. One of its demands is for equal time to be allotted to parties on state TV and radio in the run-up to election-day. Khadzimba himself succeeded in gaining election to the new parliament in the first round of voting. In general, the turnout was low, and only a handful of former deputies won re-election.
The demographic legacy
A census was taken in Abkhazia in February 2011. There had been one in 2003, but the results, though never officially revealed, were deemed to be unreliable. The preliminary figures released on 28 March found the total population to be 242,826, a total revised on 28 December to 240,705. Respondents were able to define their own ethnicity, and the overwhelming majority of the 46,367 Kartvelian residents chose to continue the post-1930 Soviet practice of classifying themselves as "Georgians", even though, as stated above, almost all of them will be Mingrelians.
The main population figures in February 2011 were: Abkhazians - 122,069, "Georgians" - 43,166, Armenians - 41,864, Russians - 22,077, Mingrelians - 3,201,Greeks - 1,380. If these figures are accurate, Abkhazians now represent an absolute majority (at 50.71%). The initial reaction is perhaps that the Abkhazian total looks on the high side, if it is considered that the number of Abkhazians in the whole of Soviet Georgia in 1989 had been 95,853 and that 4% of their number in Abkhazia perished during the 1992-93 war. True, there has been some immigration from the diaspora community (mainly in Turkey), but only the awaited breakdown of the initial figures will demonstrate the balance between natural growth and influx from outside.
It might also be expected that both the Kartvelian and Armenian figures would be higher. There is a certain amount of criss-crossing of the Ingur border by local Mingrelians, with more of them likely to be found in Abkhazia during the summer months when they tend their farms, and this census was taken in winter. It should also be noted that the Greek and Israeli governments mounted rescue-missions to repatriate most members of their respective communities in autumn 1992. Abkhazia’s population today is under half what it was in 1989, and the most glaring difference between then and now clearly concerns the Kartvelian totals.
There has long been controversy about the ethnic composition of Abkhazia, and (without rehashing historical arguments over the Abkhazian vs Kartvelian proportions) it is necessary to say something about the marked reduction in Abkhazia’s Kartvelian population since the 1992-93 war. Many, perhaps most, members of this community chose to support the actions of the Georgian government in resorting to military means to resolve the crisis in Abkhazia that had arisen in the final years of the Soviet Union; a period when Georgia, in the course of pressing for its own independence, became consumed with chauvinist rhetoric that naturally alienated many of the republic’s minorities (Abkhazians, South Ossetians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Daghestanis included).
The fourteen months of bitter warfare cost thousands of lives, and much of Abkhazia's cultural patrimony was targeted for destruction. Sukhum's final recapture from the occupying Georgian forces on 27 September 1993 sparked a mass exodus of the Kartvelian population, concentrated in and around Sukhum and the south-eastern provinces of Gulripsh, Ochamchira and Gal, through fear of reprisals for (real or perceived) collaboration with the invaders. This population movement has been successfully portrayed by the Georgian side as an example of the kind of "ethnic cleansing" that the world was already experiencing in the Balkan maelstrom.
Both the UN Security Council and the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples’ Organisation (Unpo) sent missions to the region in autumn 1993, and neither found any evidence to substantiate this accusation. Indeed, it is clear from a booklet published in English by the Mingrelian writer Guram Odisharia in 2001, in which he describes the horrors of his flight from his home on the outskirts of Sukhum through the K’odor valley into Svanetia, where many of the Mingrelian refugees were robbed by their fellow-Kartvelian Svans, that the exodus began before any Abkhazian (or allied ) troops arrived and the Abkhazians finally pronounced victory on 30 September.
Thus, whilst the bulk of Abkhazia’s Kartvelians may have ended up outside Abkhazia (primarily in Georgia), they removed themselves and were not forced out by gun-toting Abkhazians in furtherance of some governmental policy ethnically to cleanse the republic, which is surely what the term ethnic cleansing at heart implies. Their presence in miserable living conditions on Georgian soil has been used by the Tbilisi authorities for general propaganda purposes and as a means of attracting large amounts of humanitarian aid. Moreover, their numbers have been greatly exaggerated, for the larger the number claimed, the greater the amount of aid obtained (as late as 2010, President Saak’ashvili was referring to 500,000 expellees from Abkhazia).
Whatever the reason why pre-war Kartvelian residents of Abkhazia have for almost two decades found themselves as refugees in Georgia, their very existence is a stick used by Georgia to charge that Abkhazia cannot claim any kind of democratic legitimacy or valid elections with so many condemned to silence beyond its frontiers. Internally, Abkhazia’s human-rights record is also called into question over such issues as language-use in the Gal district’s schools, for it is often (albeit erroneously) asserted that Georgian is banned as the language of tuition in this Mingrelian community.
The next steps
Most western so-called experts on Georgian-Abkhazian relations have no knowledge of Georgian and are thus unable to utilise Georgian materials, which are crucial for an understanding of the conflicts that have blighted the Georgian scene since the late 1980s (at least); it is also pertinent to ask how many of them had any appreciation of Georgian (let alone Abkhazian) affairs prior to the collapse of the USSR in 1991. A comprehensive understanding of the history of inter-ethnic relations in the region is also surely necessary to grasp the essentials of the Georgian-Abkhazian (and Georgian-South Ossetian) conflicts and comment meaningfully thereon. Abkhazians too ask why the west seems to become exercised by alleged infringements of exclusively Kartvelian human rights, while ignoring the transgressions committed against the Abkhazians by the Georgian authorities and/or Mingrelia-based terrorist-groups (backed by Tbilisi) over the last two decades; they find here yet another example of the west’s notorious double standards.
The Abkhazians further resent the fact that the international community, led by the UK’s prime minister John Major and foreign secretary Douglas Hurd, precipitately recognised Georgia as soon as Eduard Shevardnadze returned there in spring 1992. This decision effectively gave Tbilisi carte blanche to behave as it wished within Georgia’s then recognised borders. This it did, while virtually all subsequent censure and opprobrium were reserved for the Abkhazian side, which was vilified as compliant puppets of the Kremlin.
Moscow’s actions in August 2008 have been almost universally condemned, but Moscow has its interests in the Caucasus, and it has acted in the way it deems they will best be served; to this extent, it has acted like most states and can hardly be blamed for that. Furthermore, its policy of recognition of Abkhazia (and South Ossetia) fully accorded with the aspirations of the local majority-populations. This can be seen as a welcome rectification of the mistake made in recognising Georgia within its Soviet borders in the first place, and should serve as a model for the wider international community. The west’s reluctance to admit the error of 1992, combined with eighteen years of blindly sanctioning the futile policies emanating from Tbilisi, has resulted only in Abkhazia growing ever closer to Russia and in Russia consolidating its influence in the area. When Russia granted recognition, its leadership stated that it wanted its initiative to be followed. It is high time for that to happen.
The Abkhazians' effort to persuade relevant policy-makers of the correctness of this step would in my estimation be advanced if they were to outline their case in a clear, informed, and principled manner. Among the most relevant propositions are these:
* Much of Abkhazia’s housing-stock and infrastructure was destroyed in the war. According to the silence-is-consent principle, an international community which remained largely silent while Georgian forces wrought this devastation shares the blame and thus should now share the burden of making good the damage. Georgia has paid no reparations, and any money available to Abkhazia’s budget will be spent for the benefit of the Abkhazians and other members of the population who supported the Abkhazian cause
* The targets of Tbilisi’s military operations in the war were not only the Abkhazians but all non-Kartvelian members of the population. The relevant non-Kartvelians (especially the Armenians) know this, which is why Abkhazians’ desire for independence is supported by these members of the community, who participate fully in all socio-political activity and enjoy their own language-rights. The main goal of Abkhazia's language-policy is to ensure the survival of Abkhaz, an endangered language, and there is now a legal requirement for all state business to be conducted in Abkhaz (rather than Russian) from 2015. This will present difficulties not only for non-Abkhazians but also for those ethnic Abkhazians who have little or no competence in the mother-tongue, and so all efforts must be directed towards realising this ambitious aim as far as is practically and financially possible
* The Abkhazian government has no objection to Mingrelians returning to/residing in the province of Gal, where, if they wish, they can exercise their rights to have their children educated through the medium of Georgian. In many cases, however, Georgian textbooks in such subjects as history and geography demonstrably pervert the relevant facts relating to Abkhazia, and it is vital that the relevant materials are subject to independent scrutiny to guarantee their accuracy. It is wrong to impose, or try to impose, ethnic categories (in the way that Georgian ethnicity was actually imposed on Mingrelians, Svans and Laz by the central authorities circa 1930), and important to respect the fact that people's sense of their identity can both shift over time and contain plural elements; by the same token, acceptance of the distinction (which Abkhazians tend to make) between Mingrelians and Georgians, and the growth of Mingrelian pride in their particular, historically marginalised, language and culture, could help greatly to reconstruct relations among people scarred by conflict and to reduce the threat of its recurrence
* Once the economy is on a secure footing, the infrastructure restored, and Abkhazia wins recognition from Georgia (including the signing of a non-aggression pact and the establishment of normal, good-neighbourly relations), Abkhazia will undertake to consider the possibility of gradually returning more refugees to areas outside the Gal district. Their integration will need to be carefully managed so that it contributes to Abkhazia's nation-buillding process rather than becomes a source of new division. It is essential, for example, that the refugees become citizens of the Republic of Abkhazia (which of course entails a requirement to respect its laws and constitution). This will both recognise their civic equality and help address any fear among Abkhazia's other ethnic groups that the effort to build a fair and democratic society will be undermined by the mass-return of a refugee-community which could prove susceptible to Georgian manipulation. After all, Abkhazia had a non-Kartvelian majority prior to the start of the war, and in Mikhail Gorbachev’s pre-war referendum of 17 March 1991 an absolute majority of Abkhazia’s electorate had voted not to join Georgia’s drive for independence, fearing the consequences thereof. In the meantime, everything feasible will be done to guarantee the safety of the Gal district’s Mingrelians and to make them feel proud to be citizens of the Republic of Abkhazia
• Abkhazia is open to partnerships with, and investment from, all interested states, but, despite diktats from those seeking to impose some flawed pax Americana et Britannica, there will be no abandoning of the independence so dearly won in the war and maintained during succeeding years of isolation and sanctions.
For years, the view was expressed that the South Ossetian problem would be the easier to resolve. And yet it was the five-day war in/around South Ossetia in August 2008 that led to the "unfreezing" of the so-called frozen Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts, when Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev offered them both recognition. Since then, the two young states have usually been harnessed together and treated as a pair. But more observers are expressing the self-evident fact that Abkhazia has by far the greater capacity for sustaining a viable independence. Abkhazia should be given the chance to demonstrate its capacity so to do by exploiting its potential with the full support of the international community, which thus far has manifested only an alarming tendency to sympathise with the aggressor.
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Author's note: I am grateful to Liana Kvarchelia, Asida Lomia and Michael Costello who kindly offered suggestions or commented on the first draft of this article. Any errors remain my own responsibility.

 http://www.opendemocracy.net/george-hewitt/abkhazia-from-conflict-to-statehood

Wednesday, 4 July 2012

STATEMENT OF THE MFA OF ABKHAZIA


 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Abkhazia expresses utmost regret over the adoption by the UN General Assembly of the Resolution on “Status of Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees from Abkhazia, Georgia and the Tskhinvali Region/South Ossetia, Georgia” on July 3, 2012.
We are confident that the adoption of any international political document, even if it is not legally binding, should thoroughly take into account the whole scope of facts and arguments of all the parties involved.
In this regard, we are perplexed by the fact that, yet again, the  Abkhaz representatives have not been invited to the UN to participate in the discussion of the project of the Resolution. This makes the document biased since it is based on the information provided by only one side of the conflict. The Abkhaz side has convincing arguments related to the issue reviewed by the Resolution. This information should be definitely taken into consideration during discussion and voting at the General Assembly.
We have to stress that in general, the Resolution does not correspond with the provisions of the Report of the UN Secretary General released on May 22, 2012. Unfortunately, the important positions described in that factually balanced report have not been reflected in the Resolution.
There is no doubt that those who drafted the Resolution pursued not only humanitarian goals. The adoption of this biased and one-sided document, which is demonstrated by its name, is nothing but an element of the Georgian political and propaganda activity. Unfortunately, some countries supported the Resolution by accident, not knowing that they were participating in a dirty political game.
We should especially note that the absolute majority of the world’s countries did not support the Resolution, and of course it significantly decreases the importance and political legitimacy of this document, which is just a recommendation by nature.
The MFA of Abkhazia states that the adoption by the UN General Assembly of this partial and one-sided Resolution may significantly complicate the process of the Geneva Discussions on the South Caucasus. It is not possible to solve the “refugee problem” or any other issue related to our state without taking into consideration the position of the Abkhaz side. Any Resolution adopted behind the back of Abkhazia cannot be considered as serious political document.

ЗАЯВЛЕНИЕ МИД АБХАЗИИ
Министерство иностранных дел Республики Абхазия выражает крайнее сожаление по поводу принятой Генеральной Ассамблеей ООН 3 июля 2012 г. резолюции «Положение внутреннее перемещенных лиц и беженцев из Абхазии, Грузия и Цхинвальского региона/Южной Осетии, Грузия».
Убеждены, что принятие любого международного политического документа, даже если он носит юридически не обязывающий характер, должно опираться на тщательный учет всей совокупности фактов и аргументации всех заинтересованных сторон.
В этой связи, вызывает недоумение тот факт, что абхазские представители вновь не были приглашены в ООН для участия в обсуждении проекта резолюции. Это лишает документ объективности, поскольку он базируется на информации, предоставленной лишь одной из сторон в конфликте. Абхазская сторона располагает убедительной аргументацией по сути рассматриваемой в резолюции проблемы. Эта информация должна была быть обязательно учтена при обсуждении и голосовании на Генеральной Ассамблее.
Необходимо подчеркнуть, что резолюция в целом не соответствует положениям доклада Генерального Секретаря ООН по данной проблеме, опубликованного 22 мая 2012 г. К сожалению, важные позиции, содержащиеся в этом фактологически сбалансированном докладе, не получили своего отражения в тексте резолюции.
Нет сомнений в том, что авторы резолюции преследовали не одни лишь гуманитарные цели. Принятие этого необъективного и одностороннего документа, что заметно уже по одному его названию, является не более чем элементом политико-пропагандистской деятельности Грузии. К сожалению, в число стран, поддержавших резолюцию, случайно попали и те государства, которые, по-видимому, не осознали, что участвуют в нечистоплотной политической игре.
Следует особо отметить тот факт, что абсолютное большинство государств мира не поддержало данную резолюцию, что, безусловно, резко снижает значимость и политическую легитимность этого документа, который, к тому же, носит лишь рекомендательный характер.
МИД Абхазии заявляет, что принятие Генеральной Ассамблеей ООН этой ангажированной и односторонней резолюции может значительно осложнить ход Женевских дискуссий по Южному Кавказу. Без учета мнения абхазской стороны невозможно решить ни «проблему беженцев», ни любой другой вопрос, касающийся нашего государства. Принятая за спиной Абхазии резолюция не может рассматриваться как серьезный политический документ.
СУХУМ, 4 июля 2012 г.

 http://mfaapsny.org/en/information/index.php?ELEMENT_ID=318

Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Abkhazians insist on their own passports, which meet international standards be accepted worldwide... by George Hewitt


During the 1992-93 war with Georgia, many Abkhazians lost their passports. Even in cases where these valuable documents did not perish or disappear, there eventually came a time when it was no longer possible to renew such relics from the Soviet era. Since the world (and, during the era of President Boris Yeltsin, this included Russia) regarded Abkhazia as an integral part of Georgia, the prevailing international view was that any Abkhazian wishing to travel outside Abkhazia (or, let us say, Russia) needed to acquire a Georgian   passport. This did not require travel to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, as the document could be obtained from the Georgian Consulate in Sochi. However, though some Abkhazians were prepared to abide by this expectation, most absolutely refused, taking the view that they  had not suffered the sacrifices of 14-months of war to achieve  independence from Georgia only to behave as though they were ordinary citizens of Georgia. And so, foreign travel for such Abkhazians was well-nigh impossible. For quite a while, those without proper  documents were permitted to enter Russia by registering at the border  as though they were stateless persons. 

Requests to the United Nations' Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) to provide temporary UN-backed passports, as was practiced for Kosovars in Kosovo, were to no avail.  Things changed with the arrival of Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. He gave orders that Abkhazians were eligible to apply for Russian passports. Initially, the process was time-consuming and expensive, but, over the years, it became easier and more affordable. The problem was that many countries (Germany being a prime example) declined to issue Abkhazians travelling on a Russian passport with a visa, hoping thereby to pressure them into applying for a Georgian passport. In the wake of the 5-day Russo-Georgian war of August 2008, Georgia devised its so-called 'Law on [the] Occupied Territories' (referring to Abkhazia and South Ossetia). In theory, this was promoted as a move to ease the isolation of Abkhazia (and S. Ossetia) that it had previously been advocating for 15 years. In reality, however, it was a method of imposing further restrictions by requiring all international involvement in the young republics to be channelled through Tbilisi. 

Building upon this 'Law', Tbilisi has recently suggested that Abkhazians should be allowed to travel freely overseas if they accept new, so-called 'neutral passports' (or identity-cards) to be issued by the Georgian authorities. The idea has found support from Hillary Clinton on behalf of the USA, and both Japan and the Czech Republic have said that they will recognize them. The only problem is that, just as the very 'Law' on which this proposal is based is deemed to be a total irrelevance to the Abkhazians (and South Ossetians), so they regard with utter contempt the latest game being played over the border in Georgia in order to try to convince Georgia's Western allies that Tbilisi has the interests of the Abkhazians at heart. The idea is a non-starter, and there is really little more than can be said about it, as the Abkhazians insist on their own passports, which meet international standards be accepted worldwide, just as they are accepted in the countries (all UN member-states) which have so far offered recognition, namely: Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, Vanuatu and Tuvalu.

Monday, 11 June 2012

Decision of the United States to recognize so called Georgia’s neutral travel documents, is a mistake, Deputy Foreign Minister of Abkhazia, Irakly Khintba, said.


Deputy Foreign Minister said that he was not surprised by the statement of Hillary Clinton, but "a little disappointed." Not surprised, because in Abkhazia people got used to unfriendly steps of the U.S. administration and disappointed because the Americans had opportunities to know the opinion of the Abkhaz society.

 

Deputy Foreign Minister Irakly Khintba believes that the decision of the United States to recognize so called Georgia’s neutral travel documents is a mistake. He stated this during a press-conference which was held in Sukhum.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced in Batumi on June 6, that the U.S. would accept the status neutral travel documents issued by Georgia for residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia who would like to visit the USA.
“I would not like to hype up this issue over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as “only small portion” of Clinton’s speech was dedicated to it. But I deem this decision by the U.S. to recognize so called neutral passports is very erroneous”, Khintba said. “This is yet another strategic miscalculation by Obama administration after they agreed to use term ‘occupied territories’ in reference to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”
He said that Georgia’s neutral travel documents had nothing to do with reconciliation and conflict resolution. “It will only incite Georgia’s new adventures,” Khintba said.
Irakly Khintba emphasized that the MFA of Abkhazia has a sample of this passport claiming to be neutral. “These are Georgian documents, issued by the Georgian authorities and these documents are part of Georgia’s state strategy on occupied territories. Country code GEO [Georgia] is clearly indicated on these documents,” Khintba said, adding that if a holder of this document would require a consular service while traveling abroad a Georgian diplomatic mission in that particular country would have to provide such services.
In fact, according to Khintba, these documents were in fact an attempt to impose on residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia Georgian passports. “We have a confidence in a choice of our citizens and we hope that they understand how dangerous this proposal by Georgia about neutral documents is. We are sure, that our citizens, who have undergone through bloody war and brutal blockade and who have managed to establish an independent state, will never accept these documents,” he said. And nevertheless, he calls upon Abkhazian citizens to remain vigilant.
“They want to lure you into a trap, which the authorities in Tbilisi have been placing methodically for a long time already. Tbilisi’s goal is obvious – to return us back into Georgia,” Khintba said, addressing the citizens of Abkhazia.
As he said, according to Georgian legislation, this passport is issued only to persons who do not have citizenship of another country. It turns out that those citizens of Abkhazia, who, by mistake, will want or allow themselves to apply for this passport, will refuse from Abkhaz citizenship, from their country. "This is a very important political act that Tbilisi authorities are trying to impose on us. This is the refusal from national identity, rejection of blood suffered statehood. That's what this situation is dangerous about", - said Khintba.
“The Georgian authorities say that the goal of these neutral passports is to de-isolate residents of Abkhazia and to allow Abkhazians to travel around the world. This is cynical lie. If the authorities in Tbilisi care so much about our rights, why they have been stifling us with international blockade?” Why are they trying to chop off any of our external contacts? Why are we isolated, why economic projects, which are offered to Abkhazia from outside are blocked? Why each time when someone wants to communicate with the authorities of Abkhazia, hysteria begins in Tbilisi? Why the law on occupied territories is passed, which is unlawful, and very far from European values, and according to which entering the territory of Abkhazia through the checkpoint Psou is a crime to be punished? What kind of protection of the rights of citizens can then the Georgian authorities speak about? ".
Irakly Khintba is convinced that "they want to force Abkhazia to accept Georgian neutral passports, achieving that the citizens of Abkhazia could not travel by any other document but with the exception of this passport." The Georgian authorities are doing everything to ensure that no country in the world could stamp its visa in our passports. Therefore, they want to force us to give up our identity. But, they will not see this, I believe in our people,"- said Khintba.
Deputy Foreign Minister said that he was not surprised by the statement of Hillary Clinton, but "a little disappointed." Not surprised, because in Abkhazia people got used to unfriendly steps of the U.S. administration and disappointed because the Americans had opportunities to know the opinion of the Abkhaz society. American politicians and researchers have repeatedly visited Abkhazia as well as very large mission of the U.S. government-funded organization - USAID. Khintba is confident that the information which they got here is contrary to the statement made by Clinton.
“I am surprised that Americans don’t understand that the Georgian adventure involving neutral passports is doomed to failure and there is no need to allocate money for continuation of this adventure. We also see that the goal of Obama administration is not to protect rights of Abkhaz citizens, but to make various geopolitical calculations and to indulge whims of its puppets in Tbilisi,” Khintba said.

Friday, 8 June 2012

The North Caucasus in contemporary Georgian politics by Spartak Zhidkov




Geopolitical significance of the North Caucasus for Georgia
From a geopolitical perspective, the North Caucasus – or more precisely the territory densely populated by the various North Caucasus peoples – is unquestionably of interest to Georgia, and for two reasons. Firstly, some parts of North Caucasus are  ethnically homogenous withAbkhazia and South Ossetia -, two countires to which Georgia has always felt and probably always will feel it has a claim. Secondly, it forms a natural barrier between Georgia and the Russian Federation proper (i.e. the portion of Russia inhabited by ethnic Russians), which for most Georgian politicians is the power that poses the greatest threat to Georgia.
Georgia’s relations with the peoples of the North Caucasus are highly complex, but geopolitical factors are clearly the Georgian administration’s prime concern. Put simply, Georgia is always thinking about the North Caucasus both in terms of the potential consequences of a conflict with them and in terms of the advantages of an alliance with them.
If we accept that the Caucasian peoples form a single “super-ethnos”[1], the idea of an alliance between the Georgians and the North Caucasus nations makes complete sense.[2] Over the last two decades, Georgian politicians have dithered between making common cause with the North Caucasus against Moscow or neutralising its “destructive” influence on Abkhaz and South Ossetian issues. Georgia’s three successive presidents have attempted to address the problem, each in his own way and with varying degrees of success. Zviad Gamsakhurdia approached it directly by promoting the idea of a “Caucasian Home” even before he came to power. This was a straightforward plan to unify the Caucasus, preferably around Georgia, which was keen to gain the support of its neighbours and avoid becoming isolated as it fought to secede from the USSR. By taking every opportunity to recall the tragic details of the Caucasian War and its aftermath, Georgia hoped to persuade the peoples of the Caucasus, who with few exceptions had suffered huge privations during that war, to act as a buffer zone to offset Georgia’s military and (due to its ethnic and national diversity) political vulnerability. 
In the early 1990s, however, Georgia’s only allies were Azerbaijan and Chechnya. Georgia discovered that any anti-Russian sentiment in the North Caucasus was more than outweighed by anti-Georgian feeling. As a result, when Georgia attempted to resolve the Ossetian issue by force in 1991, public figures in the North Caucasus turned from reminiscing about the activities of the Tsarist generals Yermolov and Baratinsky, and began to recall more recent periods of Stalinist deportations and Georgian annexations.[3]
By contrast, the reinstatement of the Mountain Republic (or the Republic of the Union of Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus), which had been proclaimed in the region in 1918–1919, enjoyed far greater popularity in the North Caucasus at the time. Although it had only had an ephemeral existence, it appeared far more attractive to the North Caucasians than the utopian Caucasus Home project. In the early 1990s, radical politicians in the Caucasus had not yet ruled out the possibility that Russia might collapse from within. Few people in the North Caucasus were calling for military action against Moscow; the attention of those backing reinstatement of the Mountain Republic was directed elsewhere, at Turkey or the Islamic countries. Whichever of these they chose, they were all clear about two aspects. Firstly, the Mountain Republic had to be a federal entity (the Confederation of the Peoples of the Caucasus, which was an active political force from 1991 to 1994, had only been partly successful). Secondly, a Federation of the North Caucasus would need its own corridor to the outside world and the best, if not only, candidate for this was Abkhazia. If it were to fulfil this function, Abkhazia would have to be politically independent. However, at that time, Georgia was conducting an unremittingly unitarian policy. Therefore, while it might allow Abkhazia to retain its autonomous status, it would not permit Abkhazia to establish official relations at state level with the republics of the North Caucasus.  Geopolitically, then, conflict between Georgia and the North Caucasus was inevitable. The only question was whether it would be transformed into a military conflict.

Growing rift with the North Caucasus and Russia
After Gamsakhurdia was toppled and Eduard Shevardnadze came to power in 1992, there was an almost total rift between Georgia and the North Caucasus community. The Georgia-Chechnya alliance was revoked, to be replaced by implacable hostility amid Georgian outrage at the Chechens’ determined efforts to restore Gamsakhurdia to power in Georgia right up to his demise. At the same time, the new outbreak of war in South Ossetia in May to June 1992 saw the Confederation of the Peoples of the Caucasus springing to the military defence of the Ossetians. When war subsequently broke out in Abkhazia, Caucasian stock fell even further in Georgia, with Circassian, Vainakh and Dagestani volunteers now portrayed by the Georgian side as aggressors and, in many cases, hirelings of Moscow or the Islamic world. The idea of a “Caucasian Home” clearly had to be abandoned. This trend continued even after the end of the Georgian-Abkhaz war and continued throughout Shevardnadze’s rule.
Georgian politicians, of course, continued as before to look for friends in the North Caucasus, hoping at least to erode the military and political assistance provided by the Caucasians to Abkhazia. The Balkarians (during their brief conflict with the Kabardinians) and the Ingush (in their rather longer conflict with the Ossetians) became allies of the Georgians for tactical reasons. However, the Georgians were not the most important allies for these peoples, and these nations were too small to have any major impact on the situation around Abkhazia which in any case they were clearly very reluctant to do. 
Up to 1994, the Georgians saw the North Caucasus as a victorious enemy. Every time tension rose in Abkhazia, the Confederation and other political organisations in the North Caucasus would issue dire warnings to Tbilisi. At the time, with its army defeated and decimated, Georgia could not be sure that it would be victorious in any new military campaign against Abkhazia. This situation improved slightly for the Georgians after the start of the Chechen War in December 1994, when the military action unleashed by the Russian army siphoned off many of the volunteers who had fought on the Abkhaz side in the previous war. The Confederation of Peoples of the Caucasus failed to call on the Caucasian peoples to fight alongside the insurgents, or even to act as an intermediary in the conflict. This led to it becoming a spent political force.
During the first Chechen campaign (1994–1996), Georgia, weakened by the Georgian-Abkhaz war, adopted a markedly pro-Russian stance. At the time, Tbilisi was very interested in an alliance with Moscow, and made no attempt to make common cause with the North Caucasus against Moscow. It continued to blame the peoples of the North Caucasus for Georgia’s loss of Abkhazia, which coloured its entire attitude to them.
The first cracks appeared in 1995–1998, with President Shevardnadze’s dismissal of pro-Russian members of the security forces (Igor Georgadze, Shota Kviraya and Vardiko Nadibaidze). Later on, during the second Chechen campaign, Shevardnadze did not, as before, provide assistance to Russia against the Ichkerian insurgents. Under the Istanbul Agreements of 1999, Tbilisi also secured the removal of Russian bases from Georgian territory. After the Chechen divisions were defeated, Georgia provided them to all intents and purposes with a base in the Pankisi Gorge. This was seized on as a pretext for a decisive cooling in Georgia-Russia relations, although the actual reasons lay elsewhere. Firstly, Georgia was already stronger, having overcome its political and (to some extent) its economic crisis, so that it no longer needed Russian support. Secondly, the Chechen war had for some time distracted Moscow’s attention from Georgian affairs; it not only neutralised Chechnya as a force that might provide assistance to the Abkhaz, but also turned the Ichkerians into a real ally for Georgia. In the autumn of 2001, the Chechen field commander Ruslan Gelayev, who had fought against the Georgians in Abkhazia in 1992–1993, crossed into Abkhazia through the Georgian-controlled Kodor Gorge. For some time, this posed a serious threat to the republic and even the capital of Abkhazia. Georgia, which understood that the Chechen war was weakening Russia, was only too happy to offer the insurgents refuge on its territory. In 2002–2003, Moscow’s behaviour towards Shevardnadze became openly hostile. Despite this, there was still no sign of a warming of relations between the North Caucasus and Georgia.
Victory in the Abkhaz war did not bring about the realisation of the Caucasus radicals’ pre-war plans of the 1990s. The Russian Federation was clearly not about to collapse, and Moscow was in fact prepared to wage all-out war to retain the North Caucasus. It was also clear that any assistance the countries of the Islamic world could provide to the insurgents both economically and politically would be far less than previously thought. At the same time, the participation of Caucasian volunteers in the Georgian-Abkhaz war demonstrated clearly that the peoples of the North Caucasus were capable of conducting an independent policy, something that Moscow could not ignore. Abkhaz independence had now become a point of honour for the Caucasians and its existence was a symbol of Caucasian unity. Tbilisi could not expect any step change in sentiment throughout the North Caucasus, including Chechnya, which had been re-incorporated into the Russian Federation following the suppression of the insurgency.

New political initiative underway in Georgia
Mikheil Saakashvili’s accession in 2003 appeared to open up new prospects for Georgia in its search for allies on the other side of the Caucasus mountains. Saakashvili immediately began openly espousing the slogans of Zviad Gamsakhurdia. The lynchpins of Georgia’s ideology were now active opposition to Moscow, alliance with NATO and support for all anti-Russian forces in the Caucasus. Saakashvili’s initial successes – subduing Adjaria in 2004, painlessly occupying the Kodor Gorge in Abkhazia in 2006 – revived hopes of a new resurgence in Georgia. The Georgian administration’s main concern continued to be regaining control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Since by this time both countries had declared full independence, this could only be achieved by force. Tbilisi was of course fully aware that the North Caucasus would respond negatively to any military action by Georgia against Abkhazia. However, the Georgians were hoping to carry out a rapid operation and to present all their neighbours, including Russia and the North Caucasus, with a fait accompli.
Prior to August 2008, Georgia had no need for complex political alliances: since they were counting on a blitzkrieg, the Georgians undertook no political attempts to neutralise potential allies of Abkhazia or South Ossetia. Georgian politicians did recall the Circassian genocide, but only briefly, with no attempt to politicise the issue. It was not at all clear until the very last minute what the scope and extent of Russian intervention in the conflict might be and whether it would limit itself to providing indirect assistance, which would be too little to save Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The events of August 2008 provided the answer to many questions. They showed, firstly, that the Caucasus remained extremely important for Moscow, and the Russian administration was not only unwilling to cede it, but would even consider full-scale military action to reinforce its position. Secondly, the events showed that Caucasian solidarity remained firm (as was shown by the concerted action taken by the Abkhaz and the Ossetians, and by the revival of the North Caucasus volunteer movement). Moscow exploited the sentiment among the residents of the North Caucasus, one particular example being its recruitment of a Chechen battalion for the war in South Ossetia. Russia thus engineered a repeat of the situation in 1992, with a Chechen division once again participating in a war against Georgia (it is important to remember that many of Ramzan Kadyrov’s fighters had started out as supporters of Dzhokhar Dudayev). It also showed it was too early for the Georgians to count on active assistance being provided by the West. The Georgian administration realised that it needed a new strategy, primarily a political one. It was these circumstances that became the launchpad for a new Georgian initiative.
However, these were not the only reasons why the Georgian Parliament passed its Decree recognising the genocide of the Circassian people on 20th May 2011. Foreign policy activity traditionally increases on the eve of scheduled elections in Georgia, and the political situation in Tbilisi is such that a change of government appears likely at the end of the 10-year cycle. Mikheil Saakashvili’s political skills have enabled him to deal with a succession of crises; the Georgian president has consistently dismissed threats to his authority – from Zurab Zhvaniya, then Nino Burdjanadze and later from Badri Patarkatsishvili. Today, however, a promising new candidate has emerged in the person of Bidzana Ivanishvili. Saakashvili is trying to raise his approval rating by launching new political initiatives. Throughout all three Georgian presidents’ rule – Gamsakhurdia, Shevardnadze and Saakashvili – the Georgian administration has traditionally directed public attention to external problems to weaken support for the opposition. On this occasion, the Circassian issue is being used for this purpose.

Changing nature of the Caucasus situation
The last few years have seen a change in the situation in the Caucasus. In the first place, Russia’s recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, its deployment of a major contingent of Russian troops on their territory, and a series of official agreements concluded between Moscow, Sukhum and Tskhinval have significantly reduced Georgia’s prospects of resolving the conflict by military means. This may, at first sight, suggest that any attempts by Georgia to loosen Russia’s grip on the republics of the North-Western Caucasus are unlikely to be very successful.
On the other hand, Tbilisi cannot fail to have noted some evolution in sentiment in the North Caucasus. This is evidenced by the escalation in tension in the second half of the 2000s, not only in Dagestan and Ingushetia, but also in hitherto peaceful republics such as Karachaevo-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria. Terrorism has become apparent in these republics, with a number of armed groups emerging or becoming active in ways that undoubtedly lead to destabilisation. This is not to say that the Adyghe peoples never caused Moscow any problems earlier; however, those problems were of an entirely different order. One example was the most active expression of protest to date in Kabardino-Balkaria against Russian authority – mass demonstrations by the Kabardinians in late October and early November 1992. These were prompted by Moscow’s attempts to restrict the movement of volunteers from the Confederation of the Peoples of the Caucasus, who were coming to the assistance of Abkhazia against the Georgian army. These popular protests forced the Russian administration to give up its plans. However, it must be emphasised that the Kabardinians’ protests were not specifically anti-Russian and even more importantly were not intended to destabilise the situation. Once Moscow found an acceptable means of settling the conflict by freeing the leader of the Confederation, who had been arrested, and stopping the pursecution of the volunteers, the conflict died down almost immediately.
Things were quite different in the North Caucasus in 1992. During the Georgian-Abkhaz war, politicians and the public in most republics were gripped by an almost romantic fervour, which was the inspiration for the numerous volunteers who went to fight for Abkhazia. In those years, even the most acute problems seemed at least surmountable, if not entirely capable of resolution. Although the North Caucasus was also affected by the severe consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union (with the economic downturn, a rise in criminality and social deprivation affecting the majority of the population), the general feeling on the ground was that things were improving. Compared with the general picture of destabilisation in the neighbouring regions – and particularly in Georgia itself, as it teetered for many years on the brink of total financial and economic ruin – the situation in the North Caucasus seemed far from the worst, and the quality of life appeared to be entirely acceptable. It was only as time went on that the North Caucasians (particularly the younger generation) began to feel dissatisfied. No particular prospect of economic development emerged in the region, and domestic problems began to increase, in particular terrorism, which affected literally the entire population of the Caucasus republics.
Opinions are divided over the forces that lay behind the armed confrontations, which became an everyday reality in the second half of the 2000s in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachaevo-Cherkessia, not to mention the formerly peaceful North Ossetia or Dagestan. Some see these events as the result of the spread of Islamist ideology and the penetration of emissaries of radical groups from the Middle East. Others point to the links between the Islamic underground and the criminal world, explaining the Russian security forces’ inability to impose order in terms of failures of intelligence, a lack of understanding of the Caucasus mentality and the direct interests of some Russian officials in prolonging instability. Experts from a number of countries have been studying these processes without as yet coming to a consensus view, although one conclusion is clear: the existence of active armed groups and the powerlessness of the local society (not to mention the Federal centre) indicates that society is in crisis, both socio-economically and spiritually. The situation is steadily deteriorating and the cause is most likely to be found not so much in a regional crisis, but in a general lack of political sustainability across the whole of the Russian Federation.[4]
One way or another, the political activity of the Circassian political organisations is beginning a transition to a new phase. Back in the 1990s, it fit entirely within Moscow’s rather inchoate (and thus relatively lax) unwritten world view, which allowed the Caucasians space to pursue their distinctive national way of life and also to support Abkhazia, irrespective of the official position of the global community and even the Kremlin itself. Today, any movement towards radicalisation by the new generation of Caucasian politicians is a source of irritation for Moscow. In these new tendencies, Moscow sees clear threats to its control over the Caucasus region, particularly since it has no ready-made solution to the mounting problems.
The level of political tension in the North Caucasus is thus already quite high, even without Georgia’s initiatives, and Tbilisi’s role in raising the Circassian question may be considered entirely modest. Indeed, the casual observer might well wonder why the politicians in Tbilisi focused on the Circassian people’s tragedy but passed over the fate of the other peoples of the North Caucasus in the 19th century. When two dozen Circassian organisations from a number of countries petitioned the European Parliament in October 2006 to recognise the 19th century Circassian genocide, this was ignored and Tbilisi also appeared to take little interest in it. Ultimately, the genocide’s geopolitical significance was raised after the summer of 2007, when it was announced that Sochi would be the capital for the 2014 Olympics. This immediately raised hopes both in Georgia itself and in the secessionist republics: the Georgians thought it would give them leverage over Moscow on the Abkhaz question; their adversaries, on the other hand, hoped that Russia would now be interested in stabilising the situation on their Southern borders and recognise Abkhazia, which borders directly on the Sochi district, as well as South Ossetia.
Another important detail is that the August 2008 war made it clear that however the peoples of the North Caucasus might respond to a repeated attempt by Georgia to gain Abkhazia by force, they would no longer be able to play a defining role in a war. Their position would still be important in terms of military strategy and politics, but they would no longer be as significant as they had been in the early 1990s. This is well understood both in the North Caucasus and in Georgia. For the Georgians, it means that Tbilisi no longer needs to maintain its bitter fight with the North Caucasus and it can dispense with the bitter propaganda war against the pro-Abkhaz political movements on the other side of  the Caucasus mountains. It has also engendered hopes that Georgia might be able to persuade the Caucasians gently and unobtrusively that the Abkhaz issue, although it does affect the interests of the Circassian peoples, is not worth shedding blood over. The continuing existence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia no longer depends directly on the North Caucausian community, since Russia has vouched for these republics. In fact, the tandem of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have staked their political reputation on it. Georgia, of course, is hoping that this regime is not permanent and Russia’s new leaders, whoever they might be, whether liberals or ultra-nationalists, will no longer be personally committed to the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The independence of these countries may yet in fact become an irritant to any new regime, which would allow Georgia to restart bargaining over the issue. While the Adygheyan peoples may not feel entirely excluded from the process, they are certainly aware that their role in the conflict has been reduced to a rhetorical one since 2008. Of course, the Caucasus leaders will from time to time come out with statements of support for Abkhazia, but this is now more likely to be in the wake of Moscow’s policy.
Tbilisi has claimed for many years, despite the clear evidence to the contrary, that it was mighty Russia, rather than volunteers (Caucasians and Cossacks), who fought in Abkhazia against the Georgian army alongside the Abkhaz. Now that this legend has unexpectedly been converted into reality – and Russia with all its military might is indeed carrying out the task of defending Abkhazia on the ground and by sea – the Circassians, Kabardinians and other ethnic groups related to the Abkhaz, although they may not feel sidelined, certainly do not feel they are the principal actors in the conflict. This disenchantment is fuelling visible resentment in the North Caucasus: whereas earlier the political self-expression of the Adygheyans, Circassians, Shapsug and Kabardinians took the form of full participation in Abkhaz affairs, this opportunity is now denied them.
One high-profile example of the new mood was provided in an interview with Ibragim Yaganov, the Chair of the public movement “Khase” of Kabardino-Balkaria. Yaganov was one of the most popular commanders of volunteer brigades[5] in Abkhazia during the 1992–1993 military campaign. The interview appeared in December 2011 and caused quite a stir, including some stinging criticism, particularly in Abkhazia. However, Yaganov’s views are important given that he is both a field commander and a capable politician. Yaganov remarked: ‘We, those who fought there, are analysing what has happened and coming to certain conclusions. And we have radically altered our view on this issue. But there is one barrier I cannot overcome. The only thing that currently constrains me is the memory of our fallen comrades.’ He added: ‘I am totally committed to settling relations with Georgia. Unfortunately, we are part of the Russian Federation and must deal with the circumstances in which they have placed us.’ In other words, Russia is now seen as the major destructive factor rather than Georgia.
There has been a steady decline in the prosperity and stability of the Adygheyan republics and they now lag behind many of the other outlying areas of the Russian Federation. This is also a factor in the recent increase in interest in the Circassian issue in the North Caucasus itself. Moreover, Georgia will of course take any opportunity to weaken the positions of its powerful neighbour to the North-West.
From an objective point of view, the August 2008 war could only strengthen Russia’s position in the North Caucasus. There would certainly have been protests from the Adygheyan peoples if Moscow had simply left Abkhazia to its fate. However, discussions on the Caucasian War of the 19th century were already gaining currency in the Adygheyan republics. And once Tbilisi resigned itself to the failure of its blitzkrieg, it transitioned smoothly into a new strategic initiative – the search for political allies in the North-West Caucasus.
It is of course highly unlikely that Georgian politicians will be able to provoke any significant rise in political tensions in the North Caucasus: they will only be able to exploit opportunities as they arise. This is clearly demonstrated by the timing of their actions (Georgia only seriously engaged with the Circassian issue a year after the August war) and the tentative nature of the steps the official and semi-official structures  in Tbilisi are taking. This hesitancy is not only a function of the threat from Moscow. The Western world is gradually adopting a more restrained stance in relation to Georgia, with not everyone seeing the country as the most promising and progressive ally, even in Washington. In the near future, the Western partners may well begin criticising Georgia, above all over the regime’s poor record on democracy. The West is increasingly viewing Georgia’s actions over the North Caucasus as provocative.[6] Given this, Tbilisi feels better off keeping its powder dry and not entering into any political commitments, except perhaps at the level of rhetoric. Russia currently has no official reason to reproach the Georgians, who are not after all engaged in direct subversion in the North Caucasus. We do not yet know who will be in power in Georgia in five to 10 years. The long-frozen Circassian question might yet be dropped as quickly as it was raised.

Significance of the “Circassian question”
Even so, Tbilisi is promulgating its new “Circassian” policy slowly and steadily, step by step. In December 2009, a Group of Friendship with the Parliaments of the North Caucasus was created in the Georgian Parliament; on 4th January 2010, the “First Information Caucasus” TV channel (PIK) was launched; on 13th October 2010, a visa-free regime was introduced for residents of the republics of the North Caucasus entering Georgia; in February 2011, a resolution was passed creating a special committee on Caucasus issues under the State Minister of Georgia on Diaspora Issues; on 20th May 2011, the Georgian Parliament passed the Resolution referred to above, recognising the genocide of the Circassian people during the Russia-Caucasian War. Georgia was, notably, the first country in the world to recognise the genocide of the Circassian people.
These actions may have a number of different political consequences for Georgia. The positive consequences from the Georgian administration’s point of view are that they create problems for Moscow on the eve of the 2014 Olympics, which is still a highly prestigious event for Russia. Calls are even being heard from some circles for a boycott of the Olympics, a precedent being found in the position of the global community in 1980 following the deployment of Soviet troops in Afghanistan. Prospects are also emerging of defiant amity developing between the Georgian government and certain national organisations in the Caucasus. And most important of all, the Georgian initiative is not simply aimed at weakening links between the North Caucasus community and the Abkhaz: it is an attempt to deprive Abkhazia of its main source of support in the North Caucasus. The Adygheyans, Circassians, Kabardinians, Abaza, Shapsugs are the ethnic groups most closely related to the Abkhaz. They could prompt Russia to take decisive action if Moscow belatedly responds to one or other hostile actions by Georgia in relation to Abkhazia.
The contacts between the Georgians and Circassians may be a cause of alarm for the Abkhaz, who have always trusted their North Caucasus cousins implicitly and recall the early 1990s when they rejected Georgia’s projects and supported Abkhazia’s struggle for national sovereignty. On the other hand, Georgia’s initiative contains a pitfall for Abkhaz diplomacy: if Georgia recognises the events of the Caucasian War as genocide and the Abkhaz do not follow suit, the Circassians will have a grievance against Abkhazia. But if the Abkhaz issue a similar statement, this would complicate relations between Moscow and Sukhum. Arguing over the genocide will not isolate the Abkhaz from their cousins across the Caucasus mountains, but it is certainly capable of causing a degree of friction. Opportunities are opening up for Georgia to play on disagreements between its neighbours.
At the same time, the document recognising the Circassian genocide could backfire on Georgia. This is particularly true in relation to Armenia, which has been attempting for a long time and with some degree of success to secure the global community’s recognition of the Armenian genocide of 1915 (the latest example being the French parliament’s decision to make denial of the genocide a criminal offence). Regarding these subtleties, the Georgian political scientist Mamuka Areshidze has given a direct warning: ‘politicising these events is fraught with negative consequences for Georgia. If the Circassian genocide is recognised, this will provide a justification for Armenia to demand that Georgia immediately recognises the 1915 genocide, which would ruin Georgia’s relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.[7]
We should comment here (and this is something that the more open-minded Georgian political scientists are also saying) that it does seem rather odd to recognise the genocide of the Circassian people without making any statement about the fate of the Chechen people in the same period. This narrow geographical focus for the recognition of genocide is clearly dictated by political concerns. The Vainakh peoples suffered no less than the Circassians from the Caucasian War. The Georgian Parliament did, incidentally, recently announce its intention to consider recognising the genocide of the Ingush people. But what would the consequences be if Georgia were to recognise the Chechen genocide? It would certainly impose some political obligations on Tbilisi. In particular, if there were an anti-Russian uprising in Chechnya, the Georgians would logically be obliged to support the insurgents, at least in the political arena. Georgia would certainly not want to assume obligations of this kind. Such a statement could lead to a new military conflict with Russia, and Georgia is for the moment at least too vulnerable and has no direct protection. It would also mean providing political support for the Chechen resistance, which has gone underground. This would in turn lead to conflict with the current administration in Chechnya headed by Ramzan Kadyrov.
Of course, everyone in the North Caucasus understands Tbilisi’s purpose in promoting the “Circassian question”. Tbilisi’s current plan to revive relations with the Circassians is clearly political in nature. A number of North Caucasus politicians are recalling that several Georgian formations fought on the Russian side in the Caucasian War and indeed were present at the victory parade in Krasnaya Polyana in May 1864. However, the new Georgian initiative plays on  sentiments emerging in the North Caucasus. It is a bold strategic plan, which could yield Tbilisi certain dividends. Taking the wider view, it is clear to everyone that Tbilisi will not be able to provoke a new Caucasian War. Moscow would almost certainly not even permit serious conflict on the scale of the Chechen wars of the 1990s and 2000s. This is clearly understood by the Adyghes themselves. The national movement of the Adygheyan peoples has also always acted within the law and in accordance with international standards. Extremist methods of the sort that could disrupt the Olympic Games in Sochi are simply not in their nature. It is almost inconceivable that the Circassians would take such actions: they value their reputation in the eyes of the global community too highly.  
However, a change in attitude in the national republics of the North Caucasus, which have so far been totally loyal to Russia, would in itself not be a bad result for Georgia. It might help the Georgian administration, if not in a military conflict, then at least in one of the countless rounds of the diplomatic game. And even if they prove unable to weaken Russia’s position in the North Caucasus, the Georgians will still be satisfied if enmity with the Adygheyan peoples is replaced by mutual sympathy. This would provide an opportunity to restore (even if only in part) its lost influence to the North of the Caucasus mountains, an outcome which would certainly not be negligible for modern Georgia.
 

[1] Comparable, for example, to the Slavic or Turkic peoples.
[2] It is, however, marked by numerous disagreements, including territorial conflicts going back to the Middle Ages. A further complication occurred in the 19th century, when the Georgians supported the Russian government during the Caucasian War and in the 20th century, when a number of peoples of the North Caucasus were deported during Stalin’s rule, with Karachay, Balkaria and southern Georgia, the territories from which the indigenous populations were deported, being incorporated by Stalin into the Georgian SSR.
[3] Although the incorporation into the Georgian SSR of the territories of Karachay, Balkaria and southern Chechnya following the deportation of the local inhabitants did not affect all Caucasian peoples, it was very illustrative.
[4] See online article (in Russian) by Sergey Markedonov ‘The North Caucasus: between an unstable past and an uncertain future’ at http://www.kavkasion.ru/sergej-markedonov-severnyj-kavkaz-mezhdu-nestabilnym-proshlym-i-neyasnym-budushhim.
[5] Interview given by Ibragim Yaganov to Avraam Shmulevich, Chair of the International Hyperzionist Movement “Bead Artsein”,  27th December 2011.
[6] See, for example, Lincoln Mitchell, Alexander Cooley and Thomas de Waal. ‘A New Start for US-Georgia Relations?’, Moscow Carnegie Center, 23rd June 2010. The experts suggest that relations with Georgia should be reviewed and a more critical approach be adopted. In particular, the US should find a “golden mean” between recognition (which is unacceptable for the West) and cooperation in relations with Abkhazia, i.e. ‘helping the region in status-neutral ways’. A balanced policy on Abkhazia might be new, not so much for the European countries as for the US, which has always taken a tough stance on Abkhazia.
[7] ‘Cherkessky otvyet’ [The Circassian response]. Taken from an interview given by Mamuka Areshidze to Moskovskye Novosti, 17th May 2011.

 The article was written in the framework of International Alert’s ‘Dialogue through Research’ project on the theme of the ‘The North-Caucasus Factor in the Georgian-Abkhaz Conflict Dynamic’